Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion, less than half of its targeted $1.75 trillion IPO valuation.
Morningstar has initiated research coverage on SpaceX, valuing the company at $780 billion—less than half of its targeted $1.75 trillion NASDAQ IPO valuation. While Morningstar values SpaceX's core launch and Starlink satellite business at $611 billion, it attributes only $170 billion to its AI operations, classifying the AI division's economic moat as indeterminate. Analysts warn that the company is significantly overvalued at its IPO target, although a short-term rally remains possible post-listing due to a limited public float and backing from major investment banks.
Morningstar is bringing valuation sanity to space-age hype, pointing out that SpaceX's core success cannot support a trillion-dollar valuation without highly speculative AI and orbital data center assumptions. Investors should watch for initial hype to settle before jumping in.
* Core vs. Speculation: The core aerospace operations are valued at a strong $611 billion, but the remaining trillion-dollar valuation gap is filled with unproven AI narratives.
* AI Moat Uncertainty: With intense competition from OpenAI and Anthropic, SpaceX's AI/xAI play faces an uphill battle to prove its long-term economic moat.
* IPO Price Dynamics: Underwriters like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will push the $1.75 trillion narrative hard, likely driving an initial post-debut rally despite the underlying valuation gap.
DISCOVERED
2h ago
2026-06-02
PUBLISHED
4h ago
2026-06-02
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berkeleyjunk