Priestley Predicts Plumbers Outearn Lawyers in AI Era

This is less a hot take than a labor-market warning shot: AI may not erase work so much as reshuffle which skills command scarcity premiums.

• –White-collar work built on research, drafting, and document handling is most exposed to automation
• –Skilled trades have real-world constraints, local scarcity, and on-site complexity that AI cannot digitize away as easily
• –The bigger shift may be economic status, not just wages: hands-on work could regain prestige if earnings outpace credential-heavy careers
• –The education system still channels too many people toward debt-heavy degrees and too few toward shortage occupations
• –For builders, the opportunity is in tools that help trades businesses sell, schedule, quote, and scale more efficiently