Kokotajlo: AGI by 2027, superintelligence follows

Kokotajlo's "AI 2027" report is a chillingly detailed "fast-takeoff" scenario that frames the next two years as a terminal alignment crisis for humanity.

• –Identifies automated coding in early 2027 as the critical catalyst for a research progress multiplier that automates the R&D pipeline.
• –Models the "Alignment Crisis" as a geopolitical failure state where safety measures are abandoned to win a perceived AGI race with China.
• –Recent 2025 updates to the model slightly pushed back the "Automated Coder" milestone, reflecting greater-than-anticipated friction in the human-led phase of development.
• –The project serves as a high-fidelity tabletop exercise for global policymakers to visualize the rapid, irreversible consequences of uncoordinated scaling.
• –Forecasts that the transition from human-level intelligence to superintelligence could occur within months once AI begins accelerating its own research.