OpenAI $852B valuation hits investor scrutiny

OpenAI is at a crossroads where its "infinite growth" narrative is colliding with real-world execution hurdles and a resurgent Anthropic. The revenue flip where Anthropic hit $30B annualized while OpenAI lags at $25B is a major blow to the "first mover" narrative. Strategic instability caused by the cancellation of high-profile projects like Sora and the scaling back of the $100 billion Nvidia deal signal internal resource constraints. While the pivot to corporate contracts and the controversial "Department of War" agreement might provide stability, they risk alienating the developer ecosystem. With a Q4 2026 IPO target requiring a $1.2T+ valuation, any sign of internal misalignment remains a massive liability for early backers.