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Import AI flags automated AI research
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REDDIT · REDDIT// 4h agoNEWS

Import AI flags automated AI research

Jack Clark's latest Import AI essay argues there's a 30% chance AI research becomes automated by end-2027 and a 60%+ chance by end-2028. He points to coding benchmarks, longer task horizons, and AI-assisted research work as signs the bottleneck is moving from coding help to end-to-end lab work.

// ANALYSIS

This reads less like hype and more like a sober extrapolation from measurable capability trends. The real inflection, if it happens, is not "AI thinks like a genius" but "AI can run enough of the research loop to compound progress."

  • SWE-Bench saturation and longer METR horizons suggest models are already handling chunks of real engineering work.
  • Reproducing papers, tuning models, and optimizing kernels are exactly the kind of repeatable tasks AI can absorb first.
  • The near-term risk is a faster feedback loop in AI labs, not instant runaway self-improvement.
  • For AI builders, this implies more automated experimentation, more synthetic colleagues, and higher pressure on evaluation and alignment.
// TAGS
import-aillmtrainingresearchautomationsafety

DISCOVERED

4h ago

2026-05-04

PUBLISHED

4h ago

2026-05-04

RELEVANCE

9/ 10

AUTHOR

Outside-Iron-8242