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REDDIT · REDDIT// 4h agoNEWS
Import AI flags automated AI research
Jack Clark's latest Import AI essay argues there's a 30% chance AI research becomes automated by end-2027 and a 60%+ chance by end-2028. He points to coding benchmarks, longer task horizons, and AI-assisted research work as signs the bottleneck is moving from coding help to end-to-end lab work.
// ANALYSIS
This reads less like hype and more like a sober extrapolation from measurable capability trends. The real inflection, if it happens, is not "AI thinks like a genius" but "AI can run enough of the research loop to compound progress."
- –SWE-Bench saturation and longer METR horizons suggest models are already handling chunks of real engineering work.
- –Reproducing papers, tuning models, and optimizing kernels are exactly the kind of repeatable tasks AI can absorb first.
- –The near-term risk is a faster feedback loop in AI labs, not instant runaway self-improvement.
- –For AI builders, this implies more automated experimentation, more synthetic colleagues, and higher pressure on evaluation and alignment.
// TAGS
import-aillmtrainingresearchautomationsafety
DISCOVERED
4h ago
2026-05-04
PUBLISHED
4h ago
2026-05-04
RELEVANCE
9/ 10
AUTHOR
Outside-Iron-8242