REDDIT · REDDIT// 3d agoNEWS

AI Futures cuts automated coder timeline to 2028

Researchers Daniel Kokotajlo and Eli Lifland have significantly shortened their timelines for when AI could fully automate software engineering, moving their median forecast from late 2029 to mid-2028 based on rapid progress in agentic coding and new models.

// ANALYSIS

The acceleration of AI timelines by respected forecasters signals that agentic coding is hitting major milestones much faster than anticipated.

–The shift is driven by new data from Gemini 3, GPT-5.2, and Claude Opus 4.6, along with METR's faster time horizon trend
–Claude Code's explosive growth, reaching $2.5B annualized revenue in 9 months, provides strong real-world validation
–Anthropic's continued 10x annualized revenue growth into the $10B range underscores the massive commercial traction
–Forecasters note that researchers within AGI companies are doubling down on imminent automated AI R&D

// TAGS

ai-futuresai-codingagentllmresearchbenchmark

DISCOVERED

3d ago

2026-04-08

PUBLISHED

3d ago

2026-04-08

RELEVANCE

9/ 10

AUTHOR

japie06